Group
2
Can
week
-
old
pizza
cause
psychedelic
hallucinations
?
Does
coffee
make
you
smarter
?
Or
does
it
just
make
you
do
dumb
stuff
faster
?
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But
it's
important
to
realize
that
your
gut
isn't
always
right
.
In
fact
,
sometimes
it
is
exactly
wrong
and
we
tend
to
grossly
underestimate
the
dangers
of
____________________
.
If
you
have
an
idea
about
a
person
and
their
behavior
that
turns
out
to
be
right
,
that
reinforces
your
trust
in
your
gut
feeling
.
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This
is
known
as
____________________
"
or
the
"
I
-
Knew
-
It
-
All
-
Along
"
phenomenon
.
This
doesn't
mean
the
common
sense
is
wrong
,
it
just
means
that
our
intuitive
sense
more
easily
describes
what
just
happened
,
than
what
will
happen
in
the
future
.
Another
reason
you
can't
blindly
trust
your
gut
is
your
natural
tendency
toward
overconfidence
.
Sometimes
,
you
just
really
,
really
feel
like
you're
right
about
people
when
actually
you're
really
,
really
wrong
.
We've
all
been
there
.
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That
is
why
we
have
the
methods
and
safe
-
guards
of
psychological
research
and
experimentation
,
and
the
glorious
process
of
____________________
.
They
help
us
to
get
around
these
problems
and
basically
save
the
study
of
our
minds
,
from
the
stupidity
of
our
minds
.
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In
most
ways
psychological
research
is
no
different
than
any
other
scientific
discipline
,
like
step
one
is
always
figuring
out
how
to
ask
general
questions
about
your
subject
and
turn
them
into
measurable
,
testable
propositions
.
This
is
called
____________________
your
questions
.
So
you
know
how
the
scientific
method
works
,
it
starts
with
a
question
and
a
theory
.
Instead
,
in
science
a
theory
is
what
explains
and
organizes
lots
of
different
observations
,
and
predicts
outcomes
.
And
when
you
come
up
with
a
testable
prediction
,
that's
your
____________________
.
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Once
your
theory
and
hypothesis
are
in
place
,
you
need
a
clear
and
common
language
to
report
them
with
,
which
will
allow
other
researchers
to
____________________
the
experiment
.
And
this
is
key
.
You
can
watch
a
person
exhibit
a
certain
behavior
once
,
and
it
won't
prove
very
much
,
but
if
you
keep
getting
consistent
results
,
even
as
you
change
subjects
or
situations
,
you're
probably
on
to
something
.
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This
is
a
problem
with
one
popular
type
of
psychological
research
:
____________________
,
which
take
an
in
-
depth
look
at
one
individual
.
This
method
can
sometimes
be
misleading
,
because
by
their
nature
,
they
can't
be
repeated
,
so
they
run
the
risk
of
over
-
generalizing
.
Still
,
they're
good
at
showing
us
what
can
happen
,
and
end
up
framing
questions
for
more
extensive
and
generalizable
studies
.
They're
also
often
memorable
and
a
great
story
telling
device
psychologists
use
to
observe
and
describe
behavior
.
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Another
popular
method
of
psychological
research
is
____________________
,
where
researchers
simply
watch
behavior
in
a
natural
environment
.
The
idea
is
to
let
the
subjects
just
do
their
thing
without
trying
to
manipulate
or
control
the
situation
.
So
yeah
,
basically
just
spying
on
people
.
Like
case
studies
,
naturalistic
observations
are
great
at
describing
behavior
,
but
they're
very
limited
in
explaining
it
.
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Psychologists
can
also
collect
behavioral
data
using
____________________
,
asking
people
to
report
their
opinions
and
behaviors
.
Surveys
are
a
great
way
to
access
consciously
held
attitudes
and
beliefs
,
but
how
to
ask
the
questions
can
be
tricky
;
subtle
word
choices
can
influence
results
.
To
fairly
represent
a
population
I'd
need
to
get
a
____________________
where
all
members
of
the
target
group
,
in
this
case
students
,
had
an
equal
chance
of
being
selected
to
answer
the
question
.
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So
once
you've
described
behavior
with
surveys
,
case
studies
,
or
naturalistic
observation
you
can
start
making
sense
out
of
it
,
and
even
predict
future
behavior
.
One
way
to
do
that
is
to
look
at
one
trait
or
behavior
is
related
to
another
.
It's
tempting
to
draw
conclusions
from
____________________
but
it's
super
-
important
to
remember
that
____________________
predict
the
possibility
of
cause
-
and
-
effect
relationships
,
they
cannot
prove
them
.
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So
we've
talked
about
how
to
describe
behavior
without
manipulating
it
and
how
to
make
connections
and
predictions
from
those
findings
.
But
that
can
only
take
you
so
far
.
____________________
allow
investigators
to
isolate
different
effects
by
manipulating
an
independent
variable
,
and
keeping
all
other
variables
constant
,
or
as
constant
as
you
can
.
This
means
that
they
need
at
least
two
groups
:
the
____________________
,
which
is
gonna
get
messed
with
,
and
the
____________________
,
which
is
not
gonna
get
messed
with
.
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Just
as
other
methods
use
random
samples
,
experimental
researchers
need
to
randomly
assign
participants
to
each
group
to
minimize
potential
____________________
,
or
outside
factors
that
may
skew
the
results
.
Now
sometimes
one
or
both
groups
are
not
informed
about
what's
actually
being
tested
.
For
example
,
researchers
can
test
how
substances
affect
people
by
comparing
their
effects
to
____________________
,
or
inert
substances
.
And
often
,
the
researchers
themselves
don't
know
which
group
is
which
,
so
they
don't
unintentionally
influence
the
results
through
their
own
behavior
,
in
which
case
it's
called
,
you
guessed
it
,
a
____________________
procedure
.
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So
let's
figure
out
our
question
:
"
Do
humans
solve
problems
faster
when
given
caffeine
?
"
Now
we
gotta
boil
that
down
into
a
testable
prediction
.
Remember
:
keep
it
clear
,
simple
,
and
eloquent
so
that
it
can
be
repeated
.
"
Caffeine
makes
me
smarter
"
is
not
a
great
question
.
A
better
one
would
be
,
say
,
"
Adult
humans
given
caffeine
will
navigate
a
maze
faster
than
humans
not
given
caffeine
.
"
The
caffeine
dosage
is
your
____________________
,
the
thing
that
you
can
change
.
So
,
you'll
need
some
coffee
.
Your
result
or
____________________
,
the
thing
that
depends
on
the
thing
that
you
can
change
is
going
to
be
the
speed
at
which
the
subject
navigates
through
this
giant
corn
maze
.
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Go
out
on
the
street
,
wrangle
up
a
bunch
of
different
kinds
of
people
and
randomly
assign
them
into
three
different
groups
.
Also
at
this
point
the
American
Psychological
Association
suggests
that
you
acquire
everyone's
____________________
to
participate
,
you
don't
want
to
force
anyone
to
be
in
your
experiment
,
no
matter
how
cool
you
think
it
is
.